Posted by
William on Tuesday, January 15, 2008 10:30:02 PM
I've waited until 50% of the Precincts reported in before I posted this, because I think that the media has gotten all to comfortable calling the election, even if it is just a primary, way to early. ABCNews.com called the primary for Mitt when less then 10% of the precincts had reported in (I'm
not lying). I still remember in 2000 when we didn't know who was our
next President for days and I also remember all the elections
afterwards where the media when they got scared to call the state said
it was "too close to call" now they are all jumping to call a primary
within 30mins
after polls closed. I think we should be very careful about doing that
seeing how crazy this primary has been. Alright enough about the early
reporting.
I'm going to give y'all my take on Mitt winning the
Michigan Primary. All the political news that I soak up within a week I
think qualifies me to give my take on the primary result so here I go!
First
I want to say Congrats to Mitt for his first primary victory that
actually matters. So far the primary voters have basically told us they
like Huckabee
(so do I!), McCain, and Mitt. Mitt's latest win means that there is no
real front runner in this race. McCain is leading the national polls
but he is far from being considered the front runner. Mitt's win
basically gives him additional life in this process, he may even have
enough life to go all the way Super Tuesday witch is very likely. The
only thing that would prevent Mitt from making it to Super Tuesday is
placing third in a primary witch is likely to happen.
What does this mean for McCain?
Mitt's
in means almost nothing to McCain. Is it a lost for McCain? of course.
But is it one that could derail McCain? No. Seeing that Mitt, McCain
and Huckabee
has each won a primary Mitt's win doesn't narrow the field in anyway.
McCain can still go into the next primary witch is Saturday with some injury
but nothing major. However the South Carolina primary will be vary hard
for McCain to carry and it may lead to the beginning of the end for
McCain. McCain has secured himself a place on the Republican ticket
regardless of who actually gets the nomination, but rather he accepts a
second place spot is entirely up to him. I just can't see a Romney-Mccain ticket. I can't even really see a Romney on a ticket Republican or Demoratic come to think of it.
What does this mean for Huckabee!?
Ah!
My favorite out of all the candidates. This is probably going to be the
easiest part of this blog to write because I've been watching Huckabee
a little bit before his surge. I was a supporter of his when he barely
had any money to report he raised and I must say that he has come a
long way. Anyone who looks at what Huckabee
is doing has to admit that what he has been able to accomplish is
amazing. For those of you who don't know I will share a little with
you, and no I'm not going to rave about him being a preacher..that's
not whats important to me.
Huckabee a few months ago was running below 5th
place and no one seriously thought he had a chance to win a primary. He
had no money, no major endorsements from the leaders of the right wing
of the Republican party, he had no money (he barely has any now), and
he has been harshly criticized for his record as a Governor of Arkansas
however he won the New Hampshire primary by a wide margin over Romney.
So
you say but he hasn't won a primary since and he mainstream of the
party doesn't support him so he doesn't have a shot. That's what many
people believe, it's true that he hasn't won a primary since it's also
true that no other Republican candidate has either. Huckabee
in my opinion is well place in this primary contest. He has one win
under his belt and in all of the other primary contest he has ranked
3rd. Huckabee
become a dark horse again. His third place finishes position him to
come in and replace one of the current top two when one of them fall,
most likely it will be Mitt. Huckabee
is expected to do very well in the South witch has two primaries coming
this month in South Carolina and Florida. Where he will place no less
then second place, and I'm going to predict he places first in South
Carolina becoming the first Republican to win two primaries in this
race. So I think Mitt's win in New Hampshire today is a good thing for Huckabee, because it doesn't allow either Mccain or Mitt to come down south with any major momentum.
If
Mitt places anything below second place, witch is likely in the South,
his presidential bid will be history and he will probably go back with
into private life with a substantially smaller bank
balance. He surely won't be missed by the Republican Party...but the TV
networks and his campaign staff will remember him fondly because of how
much money they wasted...I mean made working to help elect (derail) him
President.